Indian adspend growth will ease to 0.7% in 2020
Global adspend slump expected to be less severe than 2009 crash. Research organisation Warc's report says global adspend will fall by 8.1% in 2020, with US and Asia-Pacific predicted to have lowest declines.
03 Jun 2020 | By PrintWeek Team
The damage to global adspend in 2020 caused by the coronavirus downturn will have a less severe impact than that of the financial crisis of 2009, a new forecast from Warc has found.
Warc’s report said global adspend will fall by 8.1% this year to USD563bn, compared with the 12.7% contraction in 2009. Before the global pandemic took hold and caused economies and societies to go into varying degrees of lockdown, Warc had forecast in February that global adspend would grow by 7.1% this year.
After the US, Warc predicts Asia-Pacific will have the second-lowest fall to adspend with a predicted drop of 7.7% (USD14.4bn) to USD173.5bn in 2020. Asia-Pacific will account for 30.8% of the global total, it predicts. China (-8.6%, down USD7.5bn to USD80.0bn), Japan (-6.4%, down USD2.5bn to USD36.2bn) and Australia (-8.2%, down USD1.1bn to USD11.9bn) are all set to record declines. Europe's decline will be higher at 12.2% (USD18.1bn) to USD129.9bn this year.
Meanwhile Indian growth will ease to 0.7% to USD9.4bn in 2020.
Warc has said traditional media will fare far worse than online, with ad investment set to fall by USD51.4bn (down 16.3%) this year. Declines will be recorded across cinema (-31.6%), out-of-home (-21.7%), magazines (-21.5%), newspapers (-19.5%), radio (-16.2%) and TV (-13.8%).
Meanwhile, in terms of sectors, the travel and tourism category is expected to record the steepest decline, with a forecast of -31.2% for 2020 representing a USD7.2bn reduction in spend compared with 2019 to a total of USD16.0bn. Leisure and entertainment (-28.7% to USD16.4bn), financial services (-18.2% to USD39.2bn), retail (-15.2% to USD57.2bn) and automotive (-11.4% to USD57.6bn) are all set to witness sharp declines this year.
Trends by media and format
TV: spend is forecast to fall 13.8% to USD159.9bn, accounting for 28.4% of all global spend this year. A third of the global TV total is in the US, where TV spend is set to fall 9.6% (USD5.8bn) to USD54.7bn, despite a boost from presidential campaign spending.
Out-of-home: spend is expected to fall by 21.7%, or USD8.7bn, in 2020 compared with a previous forecast of 5.9% growth.
Cinema: brand investment is set to fall by almost a third (-31.6%) this year, but Warc thinks the sector should recoup these losses in 2021.
Radio: investment is projected to fall by 16.2% – or USD5.1bn – this year, compared with a pre-outbreak forecast of 1.8% growth.
Newspapers: spend on print newspapers is forecast to fall by USD7.6bn, or 19.5%, in 2020, compared with a pre-outbreak forecast of -5.9%.
Magazines: advertiser spend will fall by more than a fifth (-21.5%), or USD3.4bn.
( Source: Campaign UK )
The damage to global adspend in 2020 caused by the coronavirus downturn will have a less severe impact than that of the financial crisis of 2009, a new forecast from Warc has found.
Warc’s report said global adspend will fall by 8.1% this year to USD563bn, compared with the 12.7% contraction in 2009. Before the global pandemic took hold and caused economies and societies to go into varying degrees of lockdown, Warc had forecast in February that global adspend would grow by 7.1% this year.
After the US, Warc predicts Asia-Pacific will have the second-lowest fall to adspend with a predicted drop of 7.7% (USD14.4bn) to USD173.5bn in 2020. Asia-Pacific will account for 30.8% of the global total, it predicts. China (-8.6%, down USD7.5bn to USD80.0bn), Japan (-6.4%, down USD2.5bn to USD36.2bn) and Australia (-8.2%, down USD1.1bn to USD11.9bn) are all set to record declines. Europe's decline will be higher at 12.2% (USD18.1bn) to USD129.9bn this year.
Meanwhile Indian growth will ease to 0.7% to USD9.4bn in 2020.
Warc has said traditional media will fare far worse than online, with ad investment set to fall by USD51.4bn (down 16.3%) this year. Declines will be recorded across cinema (-31.6%), out-of-home (-21.7%), magazines (-21.5%), newspapers (-19.5%), radio (-16.2%) and TV (-13.8%).
Meanwhile, in terms of sectors, the travel and tourism category is expected to record the steepest decline, with a forecast of -31.2% for 2020 representing a USD7.2bn reduction in spend compared with 2019 to a total of USD16.0bn. Leisure and entertainment (-28.7% to USD16.4bn), financial services (-18.2% to USD39.2bn), retail (-15.2% to USD57.2bn) and automotive (-11.4% to USD57.6bn) are all set to witness sharp declines this year.
Trends by media and format
TV: spend is forecast to fall 13.8% to USD159.9bn, accounting for 28.4% of all global spend this year. A third of the global TV total is in the US, where TV spend is set to fall 9.6% (USD5.8bn) to USD54.7bn, despite a boost from presidential campaign spending.
Out-of-home: spend is expected to fall by 21.7%, or USD8.7bn, in 2020 compared with a previous forecast of 5.9% growth.
Cinema: brand investment is set to fall by almost a third (-31.6%) this year, but Warc thinks the sector should recoup these losses in 2021.
Radio: investment is projected to fall by 16.2% – or USD5.1bn – this year, compared with a pre-outbreak forecast of 1.8% growth.
Newspapers: spend on print newspapers is forecast to fall by USD7.6bn, or 19.5%, in 2020, compared with a pre-outbreak forecast of -5.9%.
Magazines: advertiser spend will fall by more than a fifth (-21.5%), or USD3.4bn.
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