The economics of paper, newspaper and print

But adex for Bihar is not as high. The adex is still low because the potential of Bihar from advertising and purchasing perspective is lesser as compared to other markets. But the market has to change. In terms of spending on advertising, Bihar and Jharkhand is a Rs 500-crore market with a population of 11-13 crore. To put this into perspective, Rajasthan is a Rs 800-crore market with a population of around six- to seven-crore. So, Bihar should at least be Rs 1000-crore market.

The point is, these are traditionally under-represented markets and in terms of readership, one important lesson that emerges is that these markets were earlier ignored by almost everybody under the pretext of looking only at the bigger markets, but now the reality is that these are the markets that offer growth.

It is a huge opportunity for print.

 I have been travelling from Kolkata to Manipal. One thing is clear. The shopfloors are buzzing, the order books are full. The print is growing. This is good news. The increase in paper prices will increase the value of print. Of course, the margins are under pressure, but then most people I met are re-inventing either through innovations or reducing the costs.

The only deterrent is paper. A storm of global events has resulted in long lead times for most of the paper grades – with mills resorting to the allocation for the first time in over a decade.

Printers and paper buyers have been warned to plan ahead for the rest of the year.

The combination of factors affecting the supply of graphical papers, packaging boards, boards of disposables and tissue and hygiene products – increasing the demand of pulp for other markets, which has pushed prices up to almost USD 1,200 a tonne. A year ago it was USD 700-750.

 In addition to pulp prices, other rising input costs for papermakers include chemicals and fillers as well as the exchange rates.

Even as we were going press a total of 54 paper companies announced their Q1 FY19 results and posted a combined net profit of Rs 2.24 billion against net loss of Rs 3.46 billion in the year-ago quarter. Net sales of 54 companies increased 19% from Rs 56.62 billion to Rs 67.49 billion during the quarter.

International Paper APPM, Ruchira Papers, Nath Pulp & Papers, West Coast Paper, Emami Paper, Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Seshasayee Paper Boards have rallied in the range of 25% to 50% in past one month.

Internationally, especially in Europe, the paper manufacturers have shut down paper machines in the face of declining demand, or converted lines to make other higher-value products, such as cartonboard.

In addition, there has been a surge in demand from China, where many small recycled paperboard mills have been closed down due to tighter environmental regulations. This has resulted in at least one European papermaker switching some of its tonnage that would have been sold in Europe to the Chinese market.

Some European paper is also currently being exported to North America due to fluctuations in capacity there, plus there is the extended downtime various mills because of a conversion project.

The team has been talking to book publishers and newspaper CEOs. Most of them have switched to lighter paperweights in order to save costs. This resulted in a further knock-on squeeze, with web offset, gravure and newsprint papers in particularly short supply.

The PrintWeek India takeaway is: Everything from magazine papers down to newsprint grades is certainly tight. Previously we were looking at a four-to-five week lead time, now it could be extended as far as three months.

It’s time to be radically open-minded and radically transparent.